North Dakota soybean growers anxiously await sales to China

WEST FARGO, N.D. — North Dakota soybean growers rely heavily on exports to China, but with harvest on the horizon, those exports are nowhere in sight.

“China hasn’t made a single purchase commitment,” John Newton, a longtime ag economist and executive head of Terrain, a farm credit services company, said last week at the Big Iron farm show. “We need to start seeing those commitments come in right now. And I think that’s really what’s weighing on the farm economy.”

Newton said export commitments for the crop of soybeans that is about to be harvested are at the lowest point since 2018-19, which is keeping prices low.

Newton, who was previously the Republican chief economist for the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry, said he thinks the Trump administration’s tariff policies have worked to the extent that there have been deals with the European Union, Canada, Mexico and other countries. “But where we haven’t seen anything yet is with China, and where that hits hard is with soybeans,” Newton said.

The North Dakota Soybean Council hosted a trade delegation from China in August despite the trade dispute between the two countries.

Scott German farms near Oakes and is a director for the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association.

“I think it’s important to note the fact that the lines of communication are open with the buying and the selling,” German said while representing the association at Big Iron last week. “We’ve just got to get the politics out of it.”

Farmer Mark Knutson of Fargo was part of the Chinese delegation’s tour of a North Dakota farm and grain elevator.

“They want to do business with us, but we’re just more expensive than the Brazilian soybean right now,” he said.

Newton said it is unclear how long the Chinese can rely on Brazil to be its main source of soybeans, which it uses to feed hogs.

He said China had built up its soybean supplies before President Donald Trump took office.

“It is feasible to think that they can get everything they need by drawing down their stocks and then purchasing from Brazil,” Newton said. “They can’t do that very long, maybe just for this crop season.”

But China also is good at playing the long game, he said, with the Communist regime not facing the same political forces that are at play in the United States.

“So their strategy can be a little bit different than what our strategy is here at home,” he said.

Newton said negotiations may be affected by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling after it hears arguments in November on the legality of Trump’s tariff policies.

If tariffs are ruled illegal, “it takes a lot of the leverage off the table” for the Trump administration, Newton said.

German said that China sitting out of the U.S. market is creating other changes in the soybean market. Southeast Asian countries that may have purchased from Brazil are buying some U.S. soybeans, he said.

“Unfortunately, a lot of that product is going to be shipped out of the Gulf or the East Coast, so producers in North Dakota might not reap any benefits of it,” German said.

North Dakota soybeans destined for Asia go through the Pacific Northwest.

North Dakota farmers are also being affected by storms that obliterated storage bins on farms and elevators, giving some farmers little option but to take low cash prices at harvest instead of waiting for a market rebound.

There are a couple good signs for farmers. Newton said corn export commitments are strong and beef prices are at record highs.

The development of soybean crush plants in the region, which can take delivery of soybeans year-round, also helps make that possible.

North Dakota saw two soybean crush plants open last year at Jamestown and Casselton. South Dakota has added crush plants, too.

German said they are helping keep poor soybean prices from being even worse.

“They’re a godsend right now,” he said.

In Trump’s first term, a trade dispute with China led to the federal government paying out $23 billion in relief to farmers who suffered a loss of trade because of lost exports.

Newton said there is again talk of a similar economic “bridge” for farmers, but again with many factors at play.

Newton said some in Congress see the $66 billion targeted to farmers over the next decade in the so-called “one big, beautiful bill” as giving the ag industry the help it needs. But he said many of the benefits included in the bill, such as improvement to crop insurance and other programs, won’t show up for many farmers until next harvest.

He said some in Congress don’t understand that those potential payoffs “are a long way away.”

Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., chairs the Senate Agriculture Appropriations Committee. He said in a statement to the North Dakota Monitor that he is working with Sen. John Boozman, R-Mont., chair of the Agriculture Committee, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and the Agriculture Department “to find ways to support our producers while the Trump administration works to put in place better long-term trade agreements.”