by Bernt Nelson, Economist, American Farm Bureau Federation
Easter and Passover are just around the corner and if dying eggs for an Easter egg hunt is one of your annual traditions, you may be in for a shock when it comes to egg prices. Egg prices are setting new records in 2025.
The combination of inflation and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has caused egg prices to rise more than 350% per dozen compared to this time last year. In fact, some restaurants are having to raise menu prices just to keep up with the cost of eggs. But what is responsible for this rise in price? This Market Intel will evaluate the two biggest causes of record high-egg prices and how these prices are ultimately driven by big challenges in farm country.
Egg Prices and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza
Eggs are considered an inelastic good. This means that even when egg prices change, consumers still buy about the same amount of eggs. Unlike other products, in many applications such as baking, eggs don't have good substitutes. They are also a healthy - and typically the most affordable - source of protein, which makes them desirable even if prices go up. This relatively unchanging demand for eggs means that supply factors can have a big impact on egg prices.
The loss of egg-laying chickens from HPAI is the biggest factor driving up egg prices. Since 2022, HPAI has affected over 166 million birds including 127 million egg layers. That's an average loss of 42.3 million egg layers per year, or about 11% of the 5-year average annual layer inventory of 383 million hens since the outbreak began. These losses have resulted in reduced egg supplies and record egg prices. According to USDA's Economic Research Service (ERS), the monthly national average price for large Grade A eggs in January was a record-high $4.95 per dozen. Some 12 million birds, mostly layers, were lost in February, bringing the total number of birds affected so far in 2025 to over 35 million and driving egg prices even higher. The daily national average price for a dozen large eggs was $8.15 per dozen on March 4, 2025.
This outbreak has been different than the 2014-2015 outbreak. In 2015, the virus came on strong and basically disappeared after a year affecting over 50 million birds. In past outbreaks of Avian Influenza, we've seen hot weather kill off the virus. Instead of disappearing when the seasons change, the virus has continued to circulate in wild birds as well as our nation's poultry flock. Another difference between the current outbreak and the one that occurred in 2015 is there are a lot more backyard flocks in the U.S. compared to 2015. This means more birds that are vulnerable to getting the virus, and more opportunities for the virus to spread along the flyways where migratory birds travel.
Egg Prices and the Farmer
Higher prices for eggs do not mean farmers are getting rich. On the contrary, these prices are a result of the farmer's loss of millions of birds to disease. USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) does have an indemnity program that provides compensation to the grower or owner for infected or exposed poultry and eggs that are destroyed to control HPAI. However, it can take up to a year for a farm to complete cleaning and raise new chicks to egg-laying age. This indemnity does not cover costs during the time the farm goes without income. On top of the economic loss, the death of an entire flock, sometimes millions of birds, from avian influenza is a traumatic experience for farm families.
The United States' primary control and eradication strategy for HPAI in domestic poultry, as defined by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), is de-population. When HPAI is detected, the entire flock is de-populated, for several reasons. When HPAI is present in even one bird in a poultry house or barn, it typically spreads through the whole facility. Another reason is to prevent spillover into other houses on the premises or wild birds that could spread the virus which also leads to a greater risk for mutation. Research has shown that de-population is the most humane and effective method of control. HPAI affects multiple organs in birds with a mortality rate near 100%. This is a higher mortality rate than the Ebola virus in humans.
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