Wheat prices have spent the past few weeks testing levels not seen in half a decade. All three exchanges, including Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat, are hovering at five-year lows. That’s not a distinction anyone in the wheat business wants to brag about. Especially as the current lows now align with what used to be major highs back in 2019 and 2020. The market has made a full round trip in just five years, giving up every ounce of pandemic-era and war-related premium along the way. Those former highs have now turned into critical chart support — and whether the market can hold here will shape how the rest of the marketing year unfolds.
The bear case isn’t hard to find. Global wheat stocks are comfortable, export competition remains fierce, and speculative funds continue to lean heavily short across all three classes. Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union all maintain aggressive export programs, and their prices continue to undercut U.S. offers. Even with Black Sea freight costs inching higher, the world still views U.S. wheat as the most expensive origin.
While global competition remains intense, U.S. wheat demand is quietly improving. The latest USDA report raised 2025-26 exports by 25 million bushels to 900 million — up 9% from last year and the highest in five years. Fresh export sales data backs that up. As of Sept. 25 (prior to the government shut down), total wheat commitments were running well ahead of last year’s pace, with sales tracking above expectations and outpacing both the current-week and five-year averages. Overall, commitments now cover roughly 53% of USDA’s annual forecast, compared to 47% this time last year. The takeaway: Low prices are finally pulling demand back to the U.S. If this trend holds, it could lend strength to the bull spreading now showing up across the wheat complex — and hint that demand may be starting to quietly re-balance the market from the ground up.
Proof is laying beneath the surface — and it’s worth paying attention to. After months of being dominated by bear spreading — where traders sell nearby contracts and buy deferred — we’re finally seeing a shift toward bull spreading in the wheat complex. That means nearby contracts are starting to gain ground on the deferred months, suggesting that export demand is firming up or that end users are beginning to step in on the break.
When spreads start to firm in this way, it’s usually an early indicator that cash markets are tightening, even if the futures board hasn’t yet caught on. In other words, physical demand is quietly improving. Even more interesting is that this isn’t happening in isolation. Bull spreading has also been showing up in corn, and in some sessions, wheat is starting to trade more in sync with corn than with soybeans. That crossover behavior is worth noting — it suggests feed grain buyers may be shifting their attention as corn prices stabilize, drawing wheat back into the mix. If feed wheat demand picks up, it could help the market quietly rebalance the surplus narrative that’s dominated all year.
Corn’s role in this story shouldn’t be underestimated. As corn futures find footing near the $4.00–$4.10 level and funds begin trimming short positions, that speculative money has to go somewhere. Wheat — being oversold and sitting at multi-year lows — becomes a natural candidate for a modest round of short covering or repositioning. While that doesn’t guarantee a rally, it can at least stop the bleeding. A wave of short-covering or light fund buying could spark a technical bounce, particularly if momentum traders jump in once prices reclaim key moving averages. Remember, spreads often lead price action. The fact that we’re seeing bull spreading first is a subtle but potentially meaningful tell.
From a technical perspective, the current price zone carries more weight than most traders realize. These same prices capped the market several times in 2019 and early 2020, before the pandemic and the Black Sea conflict added layers of premium. When old highs become new lows, they often serve as durable support — but only if the market respects them.
If December Minneapolis wheat, for example, can hold this area (near $5.50) and rebound toward the $6 level, it would mark the first time in months that the market pushed back against heavy speculative selling. But if it fails, the door opens to another leg down — roughly 50 cents lower, to what would be seven-year lows. That’s a scenario few want to see. Not only would it mean another stretch of financial pain for producers, but it would also push global prices into territory that starts to challenge cost-of-production for even the most efficient exporters. Historically, markets don’t stay below those thresholds for long — but “historically” isn’t always the same as “immediately.”
For producers, the question becomes, how do you manage risk when the market’s already this low? At five-year lows, the downside potential is smaller, but not nonexistent. Another 50 cents lower takes us into new territory — painful but possible if funds push the narrative. This is the kind of environment where owning cheap, out-of-the-money puts in Chicago and Kansas City wheat can be worthwhile protection for those still holding unpriced bushels.
Basis values deserve close attention, too. Domestic mills and exporters tend to step up coverage when futures collapse, meaning basis improvement often precedes a board recovery. If you start seeing local basis firming while futures stay weak, that’s often the first real signal of a bottom forming. Patience is key here. Markets rarely turn sharply from oversold to overbought — it’s a process. But signs like bull spreading, basis firming, and a flattening fund position often mark the beginning of that process.
The wheat market is bruised but not broken. At these levels, fear and frustration often peak just as value begins to return. The combination of firmer spreads, improving export sales, and a technical floor that aligns with old highs gives the market something to work with. It doesn’t mean we’re off to the races — but it does suggest the worst may be behind us if demand keeps improving and funds begin to cover shorts.
For producers, this is the time to stay alert, not discouraged. History shows markets build bottoms long before the headlines notice. The foundation may already be forming — quietly, beneath the surface.